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Justin Reginato, Ph.D.
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Architecture billings decline at the close of the year. Because 2020.

12/22/2020

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The good news is that there's only nine days left in 2020. That's it, that's all I have. But, if you are curious about architectural billings, proceed with caution. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) publishes the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), which serves as a leading indicator of commercial building construction by approximately nine to 12 months. A value greater than 50 means that architecture billings are increasing; any value less than 50 means billings are decreasing. Spoiler alert: there is more declining than increasing. If it is not clear I am completely over 2020.

The overall ABI for November was 46.3, a decline from 47.5 in October. This is the first decline since April. 
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All is not lost as there are some minor bright spots in the regional data if you squint:
  • Northeast: 38.7 (down from 44.9 in October)
  • South: 46.7 (up from 45.8 last month. Yes, I double-checked my notes...)
  • Midwest: 50.1 (also up from last month's 49.4. Hold onto your hats!)
  • West: 48.3 (down from October's 50.4)
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And then we get to the industry sector breakdown...keep on squinting:
  • Multi-family Residential: 52.2 (down from 55.1 in October but at least on the increasing side of 50)
  • Commercial/Industrial: 47.5 (down slightly from 48 last month)
  • Mixed Practice: 49.5 (down from 52.7 in October)
  • Institutional: 41.9 (down from October's 42.2)
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So there are a few bright spots as we glide through the holiday season, but overall we ended the calendar year weakly. Wake me up when it's 2021.
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