Builder blog

Current events and commentary regarding the construction industry. Opinions are my own.
Justin Reginato, Ph.D.
  • About
  • Builder Blog
  • Tacos & Tower Cranes
  • In the News
  • For CM Students

Architecture Billings Back in Black, Returns to Levels Not Seen in a Year

3/26/2021

0 Comments

 
Back in black
I hit the sack
I've been too long, I'm glad to be back
Yes, I'm let loose
From the noose
That's kept me hanging about
I've been looking at the sky
'Cause it's gettin' me high
Forget the hearse 'cause I never die
I got nine lives
Cat's eyes
Abusin' every one of them and running wild
-AC/DC "Back in Black"

Thanks for tolerating my trip back to high school head banging. Speaking of peaking, the American Institute of Architects' Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is back to where it was in February 2020 and has surged into positive territory, clocking a 53.3 for February 2021. A value greater than 50 means that architecture billings are increasing; conversely, any value less than 50 means billings are decreasing. The ABI is a leading indicator of commercial building construction by approximately nine to 12 months. Whew...we needed this little ray of sunshine.
Picture
To be clear, we are not totally our of the woods as there are still areas of weakness (sub 50 results), as evidenced by the regional data:
  • Northeast: 46.9 (up sharply from 41.9 in January)
  • South: 52.4 (up from 47.4 last month and the sole 50+ region)
  • Midwest: 49.5 (also up sharply from last month's 42.2; the biggest absolute gainer)
  • West: 49.5 (another big jump from January's 42.8)
Picture
For the industry sector breakdown, the balance between advancers and decliners was split 50/50:
  • Multi-family Residential: 48.3 (up from 44.4 in January)
  • Commercial/Industrial: 50.5 (up from 44.3 last month)
  • Mixed Practice: 52.5 (up from 47.9 in January)
  • Institutional: 47.8 (up from January's 39.9 and the biggest absolute gainer)
Picture
Project inquiries have been above 50 since August, but they pierced the 60 level in February.
Picture
All in all, pretty good news from the billings front, likely supported by larger positive macro trends (vaccination roll out, stimulus, Federal Reserve holding steady, and on and on...). It is nice to finally have some good news. That said, the construction industry still has some headwinds to watch (commodity prices and labor constraints to name but two). Let's worry about that next week. For now, let's just enjoy this month's ABI.
0 Comments

January Architectural Billings Slow Declines

3/1/2021

1 Comment

 
That title is a Jedi mind trick...yes, the American Institute of Architects' Architecture Billings Index (ABI) did slow its declines from last month, but they are still declining. The January 2021 ABI figure came in last week at 44.9, up from 42.3 in December. Bigger is better, however values less than 50 mean that billings are decreasing. The last time the ABA was above 50, meaning they were increasing, was February of last year (you know, before COVID put the United States into a state of chaos). Next month ought to be interesting. The ABI serves as an approximately nine to 12-month leading indicator for commercial building construction activity.
Picture
The ABI is way off its lows of April 2020, where it logged a dismal 29.5, yet there was another more modest decline in the last two months of 2020. This recent figure shows a positive reversal in that trend. That same post-cratering dip shows up in the project inquiries graph, but it too reversed in January 2021. 
Picture
The specific data is a collection of mixed bag results with some up from last month and others down. For the regional data, there are two advancers and two decliners. Unfortunately, I live in one of the decliners.
  • Northeast: 41.9 (up from 38.8 in December)
  • South: 47.4 (also up from 46.8 last month)
  • Midwest: 42.2 (down from December's 43.6)
  • West: 42.8 (down slightly from last month's 43.4)
Picture
For the industry sector breakdown, the decliners outnumbered the advancers 3 to 1:
  • Multi-family Residential: 44.4 (down from 46.1 in December)
  • Commercial/Industrial: 44.3 (the biggest decliner, down over 6% from 47.2 last month)
  • Mixed Practice: 47.9 (down fractionally from 48 in December)
  • Institutional: 39.9 (up from December's 38.5)
Picture
While institutional projects did not plumb the same depths as the three other sectors, it is clearly the laggard as the market corrects. The fits-and-starts of the ABI (and its subcategories) also loosely follows the Chicago Board of Options Exchange volatility index for stocks (VIX) which may suggest that billings are trending with greater economic sentiment (a theory I am wholly unable to prove/disprove but does make me wonder). Where as stock traders like volatility and the corresponding price changes, I am guessing most of us in the AEC world would prefer some stability. Hopefully the wild fluctuations are subsiding. Tune in next month for the one-year anniversary of the ABI's 38% drop to see how we have recovered since then.
1 Comment

    Archives

    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    September 2018
    June 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    November 2015
    February 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    July 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    July 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    February 2012

    Categories

    All
    Economics
    Real Estate
    Technology

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
  • About
  • Builder Blog
  • Tacos & Tower Cranes
  • In the News
  • For CM Students